NFL 2017 Week 5 Lines and Picks

By | October 5, 2017
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AP Photo/Chris O’Meara

After a mediocre week including the worst beat in the history of gambling with the completely nonsensical touchdown scored by Kansas City on Monday night, here is one thing that I am sure of in a season of uncertainty in the NFL: no one knows jack shit about the league this season.

The Chiefs are the best team in the league by a mile, and the 49ers, Colts, Browns, and probably the Bears stink. The Chargers and Giants are 0-4, but both have a lot more talent than their record would indicate. The rest of the league is one jumbled mess, where any team can beat the other. Kansas City may be the best team in the league, but the Washington Redskins were a ridiculous-catch-by-Josh- Doctson away from beating them.

Picking games the rest of the season should be fun… (picks in bold)

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)

I hate picking against Bill Belichick, but the problems with New England’s defense are very real. The Patriots have the worst defense in the league and I’m not very optimistic that they fix their issues on a short week. Take the Bucs and famous Jameis Winston here.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-4)

Someone has to win this game – the most epic thing in the world would be a tie, but seriously speaking, both these teams are bit by something: the Chargers by the can’t-win-a-damn–close-game bug and the Giants by the can’t-score-points bug. Also, the Chargers may have more of a home field in New York than at the StubHub Center.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

The Bills are coming off a very impressive win against the Falcons, but since this is the season of overreactions, I’m going to go against my initial reaction to Buffalo’s win, and pick the Bengals to cover and win this game. Andy Dalton has completed over 80% of his passes since Bill Lazor took over as offensive coordinator. Sean McDermott has built a very legitimate defense with the Bills, but the offense just doesn’t have the playmakers outside of LeSean McCoy to consistently win games.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

I am going to pick against the Browns for the rest of the season. Also, let’s all realize that the Jets are going to win too many games to get either Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9)

Vegas is begging you to pick the Jaguars here, but I think the best indicator for this game is Pittsburgh’s game last week with the Ravens. The Steelers should use the same formula to beat the Jaguars, and I don’t see Blake Bortles making enough plays to keep this close.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+2.5)

This is impossible to pick without knowing Marcus Mariota’s status, but the Titans signing Brandon Weeden seems to indicate Mariota being out. The Dolphins looked really lackluster last week and Jay Cutler seems retired again already. Don’t bet on this game.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

This may be the only game the 49ers win all year. They have been competitive in every game, but haven’t gotten the job done. The Colts may be emotionally scarred from last week, and Andrew Luck is still a few weeks from playing.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

The Eagles are significantly better than the Cardinals, but the -6.5 line seems like a trap. I’m looking for Wentz to have a rough game this week in the battle of the Carsons.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-3)

The Lions may be one of the best teams in the NFC, but Carolina looked good last week. I just don’t know if the Panthers can score enough points to keep up with Matthew Stafford and company.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)

The Rams face their first big test in their quest to prove their legitimacy. They fail. Badly.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (-4)

Derek Carr is out, but the Ravens are awful on the road and head to the West Coast. Geography matters.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

I think this line is massively skewed in the Cowboys’ favor. I think this is a blowout early for Green Bay.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+1.5)

What Monday night taught me was that Andy Reid will have Alex Smith get rid of the ball quicker now that his offensive line has lost a few parts to neutralize Houston’s pass rush. If Deshaun Watson beats the Chiefs, the world may explode. And he may.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3)

It’s not fair that Mitch Trubisky’s first NFL start is against this Vikings’ defense on Monday night. Even without Dalvin Cook and possibly Sam Bradford, Minnesota should win.

Week 4 Record: 7-9
Season To Date Record: 29-34

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