Final 2016 Mock Draft + Top 150 Big Board

On Draftmas day, here’s my final mock NFL Draft for 2016 — spanning two full rounds! — as well as my Top 150 Big Big Board, and an assortment of draft notes and thoughts.

Ground Rules:

1. The first round is a projection of what I think will happen tonight, and not what should happen. Any opinion as to who they should take is meaningless. I’d rather predict what I think will happen.

2. The second round is purely for entertainment purposes only. There’s absolutely no way to project what will happen in that round, with any level of realism. My projections in round two are purely based on a combination of each team’s need and best player available.

3. My Top 150 Big Board is where I rank one player as being better than another. So, while I might have, say, DeForest Buckner being taken ahead of Jalen Ramsey in my  mock draft below, that doesn’t mean I think Buckner is a better prospect than Ramsey. As you’ll see in the Big Board, I have Ramsey as my #1 overall prospect in this draft class, but I predict he’ll fall to the 4th overall pick.

Round 1:

1. Los Angeles (from Tennessee) — Jared Goff, QB, California
2. Philadelphia (from Cleveland) — Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
3. San Diego — DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
4. Dallas — Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
5. Jacksonville — Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
6. Baltimore — Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
7. San Francisco — Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
8. Cleveland (from Miami via Philadelphia) — Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
9. Tampa Bay — Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
10. NY Giants — Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia
11. Chicago — Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
12. New Orleans — Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
13. Miami (from Philadelphia) — William Jackson III, CB, Houston
14. Oakland — Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State
15. Tennessee (from Los Angeles) — Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
16. Detroit — Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
17. Atlanta — Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
18. Indianapolis — Ryan Kelly, OL, Alabama
19. Buffalo — Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson
20. NY Jets — Paxton Lynch, QB, Jets
21. Washington — Karl Joseph, Safety, West Virginia
22. Houston — Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
23. Minnesota — Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
24. Cincinnati — Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
25. Pittsburgh — Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
26. Seattle — Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
27. Green Bay — Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor
28. Kansas City — Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama
29. Arizona — Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
30. Carolina — Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State
31. Denver — Vonn Bell, Safety, Ohio State

Round 2:

32. Cleveland — Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State
33. Tennessee — Artie Burns, CB, Miami
34. Dallas — Chris Jones, DL, Mississippi State
35. San Diego — Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
36. Baltimore — Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
37. San Francisco — Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech
38. Jacksonville — Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky
39. Tampa Bay — Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
40. NY Giants — Xavien Howard, CB, Baylor
41. Chicago — A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama
42. Miami — Cody Whitehair, OL, Kansas State
43. Tennessee — Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
44. Oakland — Keanu Neal, Safety, Florida
45. Tennessee — Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
46. Detroit — Kenny Clark, DT, UCLA
47. New Orleans — Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss
48. Indianapolis — Kamalei Correa, LB, Boise State
49. Buffalo — Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
50. Atlanta — Jonathan Bullard, DL, Florida
51. NY Jets — Joshua Garnett, OL, Stanford
52. Houston — Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas
53. Washington — Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh
54. Minnesota — Darian Thompson, Safety, Boise State
55. Cincinnati — Jihad Ward, DL, Illinois
56. Seattle — Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State
57. Green Bay — Joshua Perry, LB, Ohio State
58. Pittsburgh — Javon Hargrave, DL, South Carolina State
59. Kansas City — Jalen Mills, CB, LSU
60. New England — Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech
61. New England — Austin Johnson, DT, Penn State
62. Carolina — Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma
63. Denver — Nick Martin, OL, Notre Dame

Seven Quick Thoughts and Notes:

1. My early money is on San Francisco, Cleveland, Tennessee, New Orleans, Miami, Oakland, Atlanta, the Jets, Washington, and/or Seattle as the top suspects to make trades within the first round. The Dolphins, Titans, and Jets are the ones most likely to move up, with everyone else likely trying to trade down, depending on how the draft has unfolded.

2. If the Redskins did stay put at #21, I would be beyond giddy if they drafted Karl Joseph from West Virginia at that spot, which is currently the direction which many pre-draft “winds” are blowing. I dare you to watch this (phenomenal) highlight video of Joseph and not get hyped up at the idea of him obliterating Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham Jr, and anyone from the PuPu platter of receivers in Philadelphia. I’m betting Scot McCloughan, who was was part of the Seahawks front office that drafted Earl Thomas in 2010, sees shades of Thomas in Joseph.

3. I’m puzzled to see so many mock drafts placing Jalen Ramsey or Laremy Tunsil in San Diego with the third overall pick. Nobody in or around San Diego is really talking about those two; they’re all talking about DeForest Buckner. I think that’s who they’re taking. Don’t think the Chargers didn’t notice what a division rival accomplished with a fierce front seven on defense.

4. I’ve been pretty emphatic that the Cowboys would take Joey Bosa with the #4 pick, but people who know things say it’s going to be Ramsey. If that ends up being the case, there will be many expletives uttered on draft night. As a Redskins fan, I have no desire to face Ramsey for the next decade or so.

5. With a need at linebacker, and with most people considering him one of the 5 best players in this draft (he’s #3 on my Top 150 Big Board below), I just don’t see the Jaguars passing on Myles Jack, medical rumors or “red flags” be damned.

6. Giants fans are all clamoring for the team to take either running back Ezekiel Elliott or wide receiver Laquon Treadwell with the #10 pick. But, it’s not going to happen. From what i’m reading/hearing, it’s definitely going to be a defensive player. Leonard Floyd is the guy all signs are pointing to, but cornerback could be a possibility too.

7. I think there’s a very distinct possibility that guys like DT A’Shawn Robinson, WR Laquon Treadwell, and CB Mackensie Alexander won’t be taken in the first round. That could lead to a lot of trade action among the first five picks on day two.

My Top 150 Big Board